False Optimism Issue for Independent Schools amid Enrollment Declines

Based in Boston, Dr. Ari Betof (EdD) is a respected educational consultant who provides actionable advice when it comes to results-driven organizational leadership. Having recently attended the NAIS Annual Conference 2019, Dr. Ari Betof wrote about his experience at the National Association of Independent Schools event in a Medium article.

One major insight was that data showed 73 percent of schools experiencing moderate to high enrollment declines. In that context, one-third of school heads surveyed reported feeling very concerned about whether independent schools could remain competitive and relevant moving into the future. At the same time, only one-fourth of school heads expressed these same concerns when it came to their own schools. From Dr. Betof’s perspective, this represents both the donning of “rose-colored glasses” and a reluctance to acknowledge weakness when it comes to one’s own institution.

Dr. Betof has explored this topic in depth in the another Medium article entitled “The Seduction of False Optimism,” in which he maps out the dangers inherent in forecasting too much from metrics such as enrollment numbers.